Backtesting Your Strategy: Validating Your Edge
How to backtest a trading strategy: how many trades you need, common mistakes like curve fitting, and validating results out-of-sample.
Category
Session killzones, entry models and complete playbooks for the NQ, ES, YM, Gold and Bitcoin futures contracts, with the conditions each setup needs.
21 lessons
How to backtest a trading strategy: how many trades you need, common mistakes like curve fitting, and validating results out-of-sample.
The NYSE cash open often fakes one direction before reversing. This lesson covers how to spot the trap and trade the 9:45-10:15…
How to define the Asian session range, then decide whether to trade the breakout or fade a false break using Order Flow…
How to size positions with fixed fractional risk, volatility-based adjustments, and the Kelly Criterion, plus the mistakes that blow up accounts.
ES (E-mini S&P 500) contract specs, optimal trading windows, and how SMC concepts apply to this benchmark futures contract.
NQ (E-mini Nasdaq 100) moves bigger and faster than ES, driven by tech-stock swings. This lesson covers position sizing and SMC adjustments…
Gold futures (GC) trade on dollar correlation, rate expectations, and safe-haven flows, with SMC setups at round-number liquidity zones.
Crude Oil (CL) trading strategies built around EIA inventory data, OPEC decisions, and the fundamentals that move oil prices most.
CME Bitcoin futures contract specs, what actually moves BTC price, and how SMC concepts hold up against crypto volatility and weekend gaps.
A framework for handling high-impact economic releases: event impact levels, pre-news prep, and the four-phase pattern most news spikes follow.