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Master SMC & Order Flow Trading for Futures
Indices Killzones
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NY PM
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📚 Revision Cards

Key concepts and essential formulas for each module

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Market Types
Essential basics
  • Forex - Currency market, 24h/5d, major pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD)
  • Indices - Nasdaq, S&P500, Dow Jones - reflect the economy
  • Commodities - Gold (XAU/USD), Oil - safe haven assets
  • Crypto - BTC, ETH - high volatility, 24h/7d
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Trading Sessions
Important hours (UTC)
SessionHours (UTC)Characteristics
🌏 Asia00:00 - 09:00Low volatility, ranges
🌍 London08:00 - 17:00High volatility, breakouts
🌎 New York13:00 - 22:00Max volume, strong moves
Kill Zones: London Open (08:00-11:00) and NY Open (13:00-16:00) = best trading times
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Candlestick Types
Reading candles
  • Bullish Engulfing - Green body engulfs previous red → bullish reversal
  • Bearish Engulfing - Red body engulfs previous green → bearish reversal
  • Doji - Indecision, very small body → wait for confirmation
  • Pin Bar / Hammer - Long wick = price rejection → likely reversal
  • Marubozu - No wicks = strong momentum
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Timeframes
Multi-timeframe analysis
TimeframeUsage
Monthly/WeeklyLong-term directional bias
Daily/4HMain structure, key zones
1H/15MConfirmation, entry timing
5M/1MPrecise execution
Golden Rule: Always analyze from highest to lowest timeframe (Top-Down Analysis)
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Market Structure
HH, HL, LH, LL
Uptrend (Bullish): Series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL)
Downtrend (Bearish): Series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL)
  • Identify the last HH/LL to determine the trend
  • A BOS (Break of Structure) confirms continuation
  • A CHoCH (Change of Character) signals potential reversal
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Break of Structure (BOS)
Trend continuation
  • Bullish BOS: Price breaks the last Higher High
  • Bearish BOS: Price breaks the last Lower Low
  • Confirms that the current trend continues
  • Look for entries on the pullback after BOS
Uptrend: Price > Last HH = Bullish BOS ✓ Downtrend: Price < Last LL = Bearish BOS ✓
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Change of Character (CHoCH)
Trend reversal
  • Bullish CHoCH: In downtrend, price breaks the last LH
  • Bearish CHoCH: In uptrend, price breaks the last HL
  • First sign of trend change
  • Wait for confirmation with a BOS in the new direction
A CHoCH alone is NOT enough to enter. Wait for confirmation!
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Key Structure Points
Swing Points
  • Swing High: High point with lower highs on each side
  • Swing Low: Low point with higher lows on each side
  • Strong High/Low: Created a BOS - confirmed trend
  • Weak High/Low: Not yet tested - potential target

Structure Rules

  • Never trade against HTF (Higher Timeframe) structure
  • Weak Highs/Lows are targets, not bounce zones
  • Wait for candle close to confirm a break
🟦
Order Blocks (OB)
Institutional zones
Order Block: The last opposite candle before an impulsive move that creates a BOS
  • Bullish OB: Last bearish candle before bullish impulse
  • Bearish OB: Last bullish candle before bearish impulse
  • Entry zone: 50% of the OB (Equilibrium)
  • Invalid if price completely passes through the OB
Valid OB = Opposite Candle + BOS + Unmitigated
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Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
Imbalances
FVG: Gap between candle 1's wick and candle 3's wick (candle 2 doesn't cover them)
  • Bullish FVG: Gap left during a fast bullish move
  • Bearish FVG: Gap left during a fast bearish move
  • Price tends to come back to "fill" the FVG
  • 50% of FVG = optimal entry zone (CE - Consequent Encroachment)
FVG + OB in the same zone = Very strong confluence
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Liquidity
Buy Side & Sell Side
TypeLocationContains
Buy Side Liquidity (BSL)Above highsShort stop-losses + Buy stops
Sell Side Liquidity (SSL)Below lowsLong stop-losses + Sell stops

Key Concept

  • Smart Money hunts liquidity BEFORE moving
  • Equal Highs/Lows = Obvious liquidity pools
  • Liquidity Sweep = Potential entry signal
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Premium & Discount
Optimal buy/sell zones
Equilibrium (50%) = (Swing High + Swing Low) / 2 Premium = Above 50% → Sell zone Discount = Below 50% → Buy zone
  • Buy: In Discount zone (0-50%) during uptrend
  • Sell: In Premium zone (50-100%) during downtrend
  • Optimal Trade Entry (OTE): 62-79% Fibonacci retracement
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Breaker Blocks
Inverted OBs
Breaker Block: An Order Block that failed (price passed through it) and becomes an inverse support/resistance zone
  • A broken Bullish OB becomes a Bearish Breaker
  • A broken Bearish OB becomes a Bullish Breaker
  • More reliable than the original OB as it proved the trend change
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Mitigation
Return to zones
  • Mitigated: Price has returned to the zone → less likely to react again
  • Unmitigated: Fresh zone, never retested → high probability of reaction
  • Prefer unmitigated zones for entries
  • A zone can be partially mitigated (50%)
An OB mitigated multiple times loses validity with each touch
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Position Sizing
Calculating position size
Lot Size = (Capital × Risk%) / (SL in pips × Pip Value)Example: Capital = $10,000 Risk = 1% = $100 SL = 20 pips Pip Value = $10/lotLot Size = $100 / (20 × $10) = 0.50 lots

Golden Rules

  • Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
  • Calculate BEFORE entering a position
  • Adjust size, not stop-loss
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Risk:Reward Ratio
R:R or RRR
R:R = TP Distance / SL DistanceExample: Entry = 100 SL = 95 (5 points risk) TP = 115 (15 points profit)R:R = 15/5 = 1:3
R:RRequired Win Rate for BE
1:150%
1:233%
1:325%
1:420%
Minimum recommended: 1:2 R:R
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Expectancy
Mathematical expectation
Expectancy = (Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss)Example: Win Rate = 60% Avg Win = $150 Avg Loss = $100E = (0.60 × $150) - (0.40 × $100) E = $90 - $40 = +$50 per trade
  • Positive expectancy = profitable strategy long term
  • Negative expectancy = mathematically losing
  • Calculate over minimum 100 trades
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Drawdown & Recovery
Losses and recovery
DrawdownGain Needed to Recover
-10%+11%
-20%+25%
-30%+43%
-50%+100%
-75%+300%
The larger the drawdown, the harder it is to recover. Protect your capital!
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Management Rules
Money Management

Strict Rules

  • Max 1-2% risk per trade
  • Max 5-6% total open risk
  • Max 2-3 consecutive losing trades → pause
  • Max 5% daily loss → stop trading
  • Max 10% weekly loss → review
Compounding: Capital × (1 + R%)^n$10,000 × (1.05)^12 = $17,959 (+5%/month for 12 months = +79.6%)
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The 3 Pillars of Trading
Strategy, Risk, Psychology
  • Strategy (30%): Analysis method and entry/exit rules
  • Risk Management (30%): Capital and position management
  • Psychology (40%): Discipline, emotions, mindset
Psychology is the #1 factor that differentiates profitable traders from losers
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FOMO & Emotions
Emotional traps
EmotionDangerSolution
FOMOEntering without setup"There's always another trade"
Revenge TradingOvertrading after lossMandatory break
GreedNot taking profitStrict exit plan
FearExiting too earlyTrust the plan
Process vs Outcome
Winning mindset
Process-Oriented: Focus on perfect plan execution, not individual trade results
  • A losing trade with good setup = Good execution ✓
  • A winning trade without setup = Bad execution ✗
  • Judge over 50-100 trades, not 1
  • Short-term results are random
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Trading Journal
Tracking and improvement

Elements to Record

  • Date, Pair, Timeframe
  • Setup used (OB, FVG, etc.)
  • Entry, SL, TP, R:R
  • Screenshot before/after
  • Emotional state (1-10)
  • Plan followed (yes/no)
  • Lessons learned
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Trading Routine
Daily checklist
  • Pre-session: HTF analysis, mark zones, written plan
  • Mental check: Am I calm? Well-rested? Focused?
  • During: Follow the plan, no impulsive decisions
  • Post-session: Journal, review, lessons
  • Weekly: Stats analysis, adjustments
If mental state < 7/10 → Don't trade that day
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Realistic Expectations
Reasonable goals
MetricUnrealisticRealistic
Monthly Return50-100%3-10%
Win Rate90%+40-60%
Trades/day10+1-3
Time to profitability1-3 months1-2 years
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OTE - Optimal Trade Entry
Optimal Fibonacci zone
OTE Zone = 61.8% - 78.6% Fibonacci RetracementSweet Spot = 70.5% (middle of OTE zone)
  • Draw Fib from swing low to swing high (or reverse)
  • Wait for price to retrace into the 61.8-78.6% zone
  • Look for confirmation (OB, FVG, reaction)
  • SL below/above the swing low/high
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Liquidity Sweep + OB
High probability model
  • Step 1: Identify liquidity (EQH, EQL, obvious highs/lows)
  • Step 2: Wait for the liquidity sweep
  • Step 3: Look for CHoCH on LTF
  • Step 4: Enter on the OB created after CHoCH
  • SL: Beyond the sweep
  • TP: Opposite liquidity
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FVG Entry Model
Imbalance entry
  • Setup: FVG created by impulsive move with BOS
  • Entry: Limit order at 50% of FVG (CE)
  • SL: Below/above the complete FVG
  • TP: Opposite structure or liquidity
FVG must be in an appropriate Premium/Discount zone
AMD Model
Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution
PhaseDescriptionAction
AccumulationRange, consolidation (Asia)Identify extremes
ManipulationFake breakout, sweepWait for the trap
DistributionTrue directional moveEnter with the flow
Judas Swing: The manipulation move that traps traders before the real move
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Breaker + FVG Confluence
High probability setup
  • Breaker Block = Failed and inverted OB
  • Look for an FVG that overlaps with the Breaker
  • Entry at the confluence zone
  • More reliable due to double confirmation
Confluence = Breaker + FVG + Discount/Premium Zone = A+ Setup (very high probability)
Entry Checklist
Before each trade

All these elements must be present:

  • ☐ Clear HTF bias (Daily/4H)
  • ☐ Aligned structure (BOS confirmed)
  • ☐ Value zone (OB/FVG in Discount/Premium)
  • ☐ Liquidity taken or to target
  • ☐ LTF confirmation (CHoCH, reaction)
  • ☐ Minimum 1:2 R:R
  • ☐ Active Kill Zone
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Delta Basics
Buy/Sell difference
Delta = Buying Volume - Selling VolumePositive Delta = More aggressive buys Negative Delta = More aggressive sells
  • Candle UP + Positive Delta: Healthy move, likely continuation
  • Candle UP + Negative Delta: ⚠️ Divergence, possible reversal
  • Candle DOWN + Positive Delta: ⚠️ Divergence, possible reversal
  • Candle DOWN + Negative Delta: Healthy move, likely continuation
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Cumulative Delta (CVD)
Cumulative delta
CVD: Cumulative sum of delta over time, shows overall buying/selling pressure
PriceCVDSignal
↑ Rising↑ RisingHealthy trend ✓
↑ Rising↓ FallingBearish divergence ⚠️
↓ Falling↓ FallingHealthy trend ✓
↓ Falling↑ RisingBullish divergence ⚠️
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Footprint Charts
Reading footprints
Format: BID × ASK Example: 500 × 2000Delta at this level = 2000 - 500 = +1500 (Dominant buying pressure)
  • Imbalance: Ratio >300% between bid/ask = directional force
  • Stacked Imbalances: 3+ consecutive imbalances = strong zone
  • Absorption: Large volume without price movement
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Volume Profile
Volume distribution
  • POC (Point of Control): Price with most volume = fair value
  • VAH (Value Area High): Upper limit of value area (70%)
  • VAL (Value Area Low): Lower limit of value area (70%)
  • HVN (High Volume Node): Consolidation zone, support/resistance
  • LVN (Low Volume Node): Low interest zone, price moves quickly
Price tends to return to POC (mean reversion)
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Order Book / DOM
Depth of Market
  • Bid: Pending buy orders (support)
  • Ask: Pending sell orders (resistance)
  • Spoofing: Fake orders to manipulate (illegal but exists)
  • Iceberg Orders: Hidden large orders, only part visible
  • Absorption: Large limit orders that "absorb" market orders
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Order Flow Tools
Recommended platforms
PlatformSpecialty
Sierra ChartAdvanced footprint, customizable
ATASCluster charts, analytics
BookmapDOM visualization, heatmaps
QuantowerMulti-asset, volume profile
ExochartsCrypto specialized
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Demo to Live Transition
Progression steps

Criteria Before Going Live

  • ☐ 3 consecutive profitable months in demo
  • ☐ Minimum 100 journaled trades
  • ☐ Stable win rate (40%+ with good R:R)
  • ☐ Max drawdown controlled (<15%)
  • ☐ Risk management rules followed
  • ☐ Emotions under control
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Starting Capital
Recommendations
  • Use ONLY money you can afford to lose
  • Start small: $500-$2000 recommended
  • Micro-lots (0.01) to limit risk
  • Increase gradually with profits
Never borrow to trade. Never trade rent money.
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Trading Plan
Mandatory document

Plan Elements

  • Pairs/instruments traded
  • Timeframes used
  • Authorized setups (with precise criteria)
  • Entry rules (checklist)
  • Exit rules (TP, SL, trailing)
  • Risk per trade (1-2%)
  • Max trades per day/week
  • Trading hours (Kill Zones)
  • Rules if losing streak
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Common Mistakes
Absolutely avoid
  • Overtrading: Too many trades = too many fees + errors
  • No SL: "It will come back" → account blow up
  • Moving SL: Hope ≠ Strategy
  • Excessive size: 5-10% per trade = gambling
  • Revenge trading: After a loss → take a break
  • Ignoring the plan: The plan exists for a reason
  • Changing strategy: Test 1000 trades before judging
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Metrics to Track
Trader KPIs
MetricFormulaTarget
Win RateWins / Total Trades>40% (with good R:R)
Profit FactorGross Profit / Gross Loss>1.5
Avg Realized R:RAvg Win / Avg Loss>2.0
Max DrawdownPeak to Trough<15%
Expectancy(WR×AvgW)-(LR×AvgL)Positive
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Pro Trader Mindset
Winning attitudes
  • "I am a risk manager, not a predictor"
  • "Losses are part of the game"
  • "I trade my plan, not my emotions"
  • "Consistency beats intensity"
  • "I focus on process, not outcome"
  • "The market is always right"
  • "Preserving capital = priority #1"
Trading Success: Following your plan with discipline for years, not getting rich in 1 month